NAQT States Predictions

[rdfromsolon]

To quote Saajid's brother: "Go"

[sbfromcopley]

#1. NORTHMONT/SOLON: Obviously Sam is good at this game, but given the massive improvement of Solon this year and their record against Northmont in tournaments it would be unfair to count them out of the title. I think that on more difficult sets (particularly in NAQT, which I have been told is not Solon's strong point by Rohin) Sam will probably still win this matchup for now, but as it is only states Solon may get a little help from the packets. Solon and Northmont definitely seem like the best teams in the state right now, and this will probably hold true at states.

#3. SIDNEY: Whenever Sidney is mentioned we all mention how they are the only team to successfully specialize in the state, and this continues to hold true. For this reason Sidney has been a solid threat for the past 2 years, and will continue to be one. Just from my own experience playing against them, however, they seem to tilt somewhat easily, and this leads to many of their losses (against Copley, idk what happens with other teams). If they can overcome this while continuing to improve they will be good at nats.

#4. FISHER: Brandon is good, and I think NAQT amplifies his best subjects. His teammates sort of stepped up this year too, and overall they're just a solid squad.

#5. COPLEY: Our performance will likely be not that good. When you combine a sort of lack of study-drive on my part, with the loss of Kevin from the team we are looking pretty weak when compared to the above teams. Although we have wins on Solon and Sidney from this year I just don't have that much faith in our ability to win. Hopefully I'm just downplaying this as I can see our weaknesses better than outsiders, but I'm not sure I am.

#6. DUBLIN SCIOTO: Koh is a pretty good player. I haven't played him at all this year, but based on their performance at various tournaments it seems that they are unable to compete with the upper echelon teams while picking up wins against the rest of Ohio pretty easily.

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I don't know anything about any other teams in Ohio so I won't say dumb things about them. Out of the teams I listed above the I would not be surprised to see Solon/Sidney/Fisher beating each other, or Solon/Northmont beating each other. I think games outside of those 4 that involve one of those teams will likely result in a win for one of the 4 teams.

States is usually pretty fun. Good luck.

[Get Lynned]

Northmont d. Solon in the second game of an advantaged final. The Bolts go undefeated in their morning pool, win their afternoon bracket, and then take on the Cuyahoga Comets for the title. Solon will go undefeated in their morning pool, drop a game to one of Sidney, Fisher, or Copley but clear the first-place finish of their afternoon bracket by virtue of a three-way tie (somehow) for 2-4 spots in their afternoon bracket.

Top ten scorers in order

Blizzard - Northmont
Shull - Fisher
Devanthan - Solon
Jensen - Sidney
Moyen - Copley
Yamakawa - Scioto
Reilly - Beachwood
Hijazi - Sidney
Brugler - Warren GH
Vyas or Spangler - Tippecanoe

Best participating schools' mascot award goes to Smithville. Go Smithies!

Shout out to Ross County for being represented by two schools, also.

I'm going to set the over/under on "man, this school looks like Hogwarts/or the school from Dead Poets Society" references at four (4).

[Get Lynned]

Ah man Sayeef - you beat me to it evidently. But obviously, I agree.

[rdfromsolon]

1. Northmont: If their TI performance says anything, its that nobody in Ohio can touch Sam, especially on NAQT. Northmont should be able to capture their third straight NAQT state title.

2. Solon/Sidney: We have taken down Northmont twice this year, but both times were on ACF distribution. We are much weaker on NAQT. Also, we have tended to struggle against other top teams in Ohio, as we have losing records against both Fisher and Sidney, and have dropped multiple matches to a full strength Copley. Depending on packets we could do anything from finishing 5th to taking a game off Northmont.
Sidney has been very solid all year and are the only one of the top teams that is highly specialized. However, they still have a science hole and have been inconsistent between tournaments. I could easily see Sidney finishing second or not finishing in the top 4.

4. Fisher/Copley: Brandon has been very strong this year and is definitely one of ze best players in the state. If Hunter/Andrew can give him good support Fisher will be a dangerous team.
Losing Kevin will hurt, but Saajid's Brother/Sayeef is still a very strong generalist for Copley. They also still have Bobby and Varley's Wild Bunch, who can score some points. I could easily see this team beating anyone but Northmont on a good packet.

Other Teams:
Dublin Scioto: Koh is without much support but has still turned in some decent performances. I would expect this team to finish right outside the top 5.
Tippecanoe: Not exactly sure their team comp, but they have shown a lot of improvement from last year and are definitely a top 10 team.
Olentangy A: Olentangy seems very eager to improve and they have gone from just starting quizbowl to being a pretty solid team in Ohio this year.
Beachwood: Ryan should be able to carry this team to a top 10 performance. I've only really seen them at one tourney this year, so it is unclear how much they have improved.
Solon B: Solon B is by far a top 10 team. Wilbert, Jeffrey, and Jon have consistently demonstrated their ability to score above 50 points against top teams in the nation. With the addition of Euro specialist Krish, Fine Arts specialist Daniel, and most importantly coach Andy Lui, this is a very decent team.

[Get Lynned]

1. Northmont: If their TI performance says anything, its that nobody in Ohio can touch Sam, especially on NAQT. Northmont should be able to capture their third straight NAQT state title.

2. Solon/Sidney: We have taken down Northmont twice this year, but both times were on ACF distribution. We are much weaker on NAQT. Also, we have tended to struggle against other top teams in Ohio, as we have losing records against both Fisher and Sidney, and have dropped multiple matches to a full strength Copley. Depending on packets we could do anything from finishing 5th to taking a game off Northmont.
Sidney has been very solid all year and are the only one of the top teams that is highly specialized. However, they still have a science hole and have been inconsistent between tournaments. I could easily see Sidney finishing second or not finishing in the top 4.

4. Fisher/Copley: Brandon has been very strong this year and is definitely one of ze best players in the state. If Hunter/Andrew can give him good support Fisher will be a dangerous team.
Losing Kevin will hurt, but Saajid's Brother/Sayeef is still a very strong generalist for Copley. They also still have Bobby and Varley's Wild Bunch, who can score some points. I could easily see this team beating anyone but Northmont on a good packet.

Other Teams:
Dublin Scioto: Koh is without much support but has still turned in some decent performances. I would expect this team to finish right outside the top 5.
Tippecanoe: Not exactly sure their team comp, but they have shown a lot of improvement from last year and are definitely a top 10 team.
Olentangy A: Olentangy seems very eager to improve and they have gone from just starting quizbowl to being a pretty solid team in Ohio this year.
Beachwood: Ryan should be able to carry this team to a top 10 performance. I've only really seen them at one tourney this year, so it is unclear how much they have improved.
Solon B: Solon B is by far a top 10 team. Wilbert, Jeffrey, and Jon have consistently demonstrated their ability to score above 50 points against top teams in the nation. With the addition of Euro specialist Krish, Fine Arts specialist Daniel, and most importantly coach Andy Lui, this is a very decent team.

Fisher's key will be if Andrew can consistently drop ~30ppg, or at least when it matters most. Hunter can get a good buzz or two especially on NAQT. Maybe not Northmont, but Fisher could be playing for second if all those factors click for them.

Regarding Olentangy Liberty - a couple things. Between "A" and "B", the "B" team is the better of the two for tossup/bonus and has the highest potential to be better players next year as none of them are seniors. They're not that strong at NAQT distribution, but Adam came in knowing a healthy chunk of arts, and he's getting better and better at that. Tim is a solid player that will only get better and better. I think they're a team that can probably find itself in next year's top five by years' end.

Just to clarify on a broader point that I see Rohin illuminated: for future reference, Central Ohio has a handful of school districts that operate two or three high schools that are similarly named. Olentangy has three HS's: the original Olentangy High School, Olentangy Orange HS, and the school I have an unofficial position with, Olentangy Liberty. With the exception of schools with geographic names like Westerville schools do, it may be better and more clear for all intents and purposes moving forward to take out the school district name and just call them by the name they go by intra-districtly, i.e. "Olentangy Liberty" as "Liberty", "Dublin Scioto" as "Scioto", "Hillard Bradley" as "Bradley".

I don't bring that up simply to be punctilious, but given that there's a school simply called Olentangy HS it's better to draw that distinction and recommendation so as not to conflate the participating teams with their sister schools as hopefully Central Ohio becomes more and more involved with quiz bowl.

Plus, calling them by the local names can help differentiate between two schools from the same district. I think Dublin's three schools actually went to an OSU tournament recently.

Carry on!

[crbirdx1]

I'll talk about the teams not mentioned thus far

St. Charles A will put up some #'s and they beat us consistently. I think that Riley is quite good we just have a psychological block and have not beat them. They beat Northmont w/o Sam at our DelFranCo Tournament (SCOP).

Chillicothe we beat them on In The Know but we were lazy and lost to them @ Waverly. The Whalen Bros can put up some points but they are graduating 3 seniors so they will be rebuilding next year. Do not let your guard down.

Olentangy Liberty our A team is really our A team now as our seniors have be transferred to the B team. We will be without Tim or Karthik 2 of our top 3 player due to robotics/JSA this weekend. We will have three teams and my junior class is stacked. I would watch our for Adam, Sneha, Rebekah on the A. If Cameron, Avivah and Jack make a return appearance they had a 25 PPB @ Battle of the Burgh. We should have 1-2 teams with winning records but that will be decided on who shows up to play this weekend.

Unioto Josh Queen from Chillicothe said that they have a wonder sophomore and can put some points in OAC but they may not make it.

Cloverleaf should put up a battle but the upper echelon of teams should not have a hard time beating them.

Warren Harding my D team of sophomores barely lost to them at Smithville NAQT A set don't take them for granted.

Smithville have a team that can dominate the lower half if not careful. Great coaches and the kids are motivated. They put on a great HS/ MS tournament.

Dublin Jerome can put up points just based on pure academics but they never travel. Expect them to beat Tipp/us on the right set and could even spoil some games for the top 6 mentioned.

Olmsted Falls I have little info but they travel to different places and do alright but may not break the top 10.

This ranking is not perfect but if my A team puts on a show without our top scorer then we can break the top 10.

Northmont A 1st
Solon A 2nd
Fisher Catholic 3rd
Copley or Sidney 4th depends if Copley is at full capacity
Tippecanoe A or Dublin Scioto 6th
Solon B or Northmont B 8th
St. Charles A or Dublin Jerome 10th
Chillicothe or Olmsted Falls 12th
Olentangy Liberty or Beachwood A 14th
Liberty B 16th
Cloverleaf A 17th
Warren Harding 18th
Smithville A 19th
Liberty C 20th
Unioto 21st
St. Charles B 22nd
Cloverleaf B 23rd
Smithville B 24th

[AlexConnor]

Unioto did withdraw. The team Cortney is missing from his ranking is Copley B. I think Sue said that team would be a young group of players who had a lot of success at MSNCT last year.

I won't reveal the brackets until Saturday morning but I will say that I am seeding the field based on a combination of Fred Morlan's rankings and a review of the unranked teams' performance on NAQT sets this year. The four divisions will be balanced by seed as well as by geography and obviously teams from the same school won't face each other in the morning.

I like taking geography into consideration because I think the state tournament should be an opportunity to play some teams you haven't faced before. Especially for the teams who haven't traveled as much this season.

It's a smaller field than last year but I'm pleased with the strength. The top 5 teams are excellent and I expect a lot of parity among the middle 10.

[crbirdx1]

We will not have 3 of my top 5 scorers due to JSA/ Choir trip/ robotics. So we will have a presence in the lower part of the standings (i.e. 12-24).