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 Post subject: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:11 am 
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Junior Varsity

Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:26 pm
Posts: 51
I was bored and wanted to find a way to rank teams statistically. This is obviously limited to the TU/B format. The data I use makes this “useful” for comparison of Ohio teams only. I was inspired by Tyler Benedicts work last year and used some similar data. I ranked teams based a formula using the adjusted PPB (aPPB) and adjusted power percentage (aP%). I adjusted the PPB and P% by using the average of all IS sets.

The formula I used to calculated the ARP (average ranked points ) number I ranked the teams on was:

(aPPB*aP%) + aPPB = ARP

The reason I chose to add aPPB was to prevent teams from having a zero ARP if their power percentage was 0.

Feel feel to critique and add anything you think would make it better! I am open to lots of suggestions.

I ranked middle school teams and high school teams. I did not use the stats for Solon A and Beavercreek A from their hosted tournaments because I know their real A teams did not play. Let me know if I missed stats anywhere!

Tournaments used:
-High School: Solon Fall, Scottie (KY), Brookfield Gathering, Miami Valley Fall, Beavercreek. Mellon Bowl (PA), Waynesdale, Columbiana
-Middle School: Northmont, Miami Valley Fall

Middle School
Attachment:
ms rank nov 1.PNG
ms rank nov 1.PNG [ 16.37 KiB | Viewed 2933 times ]


High School
Attachment:
rankings nov 1.PNG
rankings nov 1.PNG [ 98.45 KiB | Viewed 2933 times ]

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


Last edited by eckj on Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:06 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:03 pm
Posts: 116
This looks really cool, Josh (and much more nicely conceived than my brute-force attempts last year)...good to have someone with some quantitative acumen crunching numbers for a change!

In particular, the treatment of power percentage seems better than my ham-fisted way of accounting for it last year, which was to do one set of rankings entirely based on aPPB, and another entirely based on aP%, then add the relative positions of both together (so a team who was 1st on the aP% list and 3rd in aPPB would have a combined ranking of 1+3=4, with 2 then being the best possible number). I think your way here, Josh, is a nice solution to get sound rankings without all that double-listing, position-adding and other nonsense. Kudos to you for calculating all those adjustments!

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Tyler Benedict
Coach, Miami Valley School MS Quiz
Assistant, Miami Valley School HS Quiz
Miami Valley School '09


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:46 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:45 pm
Posts: 35
Thanks for doing this! I always love looking at different ways of ranking teams. Looking forward to seeing how more Ohio teams do as the season progresses!

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Pranav Padmanabhan
Boardman (2014-2018)
Youngstown State (2017-2018)


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:07 am 
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Junior Varsity

Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:26 pm
Posts: 51
Thank you both. I will continue to do it just for just for fun. I already made a slight adjustment to the stats to remove outliers when calculating the adjustment for the sets.

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:10 pm 
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Updated High School after Tippecanoe and Gahanna-Lincoln this weekend.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p0thgYk4FXer2QnJuoT8FTrmcYWHQIxjZrkkTafnLqQ/edit#gid=260751617

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:24 pm 
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Here is an updated: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =227305641

I made a few changes:
1. I pulled data for all of the sets from tournaments outside of Ohio to calculate set adjustments. I was getting some weird adjustments because I did not have enough data points.

2. I decided to calculate APR using the teams BEST adjusted PPB and P% instead of using their CUMULATIVE adjusted PPB and P%. This seems more fair because as teams improve their ranking would be held down by their stats from earlier in the season.

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:10 am 
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Junior Varsity

Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:26 pm
Posts: 51
Update:

MS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WDnH80VrtPUJiGwiRskHas9-W2pBNAXlN0NoebCBjoM/edit#gid=1060668002
HS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p0thgYk4FXer2QnJuoT8FTrmcYWHQIxjZrkkTafnLqQ/edit#gid=1418089100

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:25 pm 
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Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:26 pm
Posts: 51
Major update.

I changed how I calculate adjustments and I am now using the average of a teams top two performances in P% and PPB.

I also labeled each teams region. I used this map
Image

My calculations rely on teams playing IS or MS sets to compare to house writes, I do not have enough data to calculate adjustments so teams that have played CFMS 5/6, CFMS 7/8, SCOP HS, SCOP MS may have a score of 0.

MS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1766095557
-No major changes

HS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1684871096
-Bexley debuts at #9
-Dublin Scioto leapfrogs Solon into the #3 spot.

Breakdown By Region (Remember I am ranking every team I have TU/B stats for)
Northeast: Number of Teams (76), Avg. ARP (11.61)
Northwest: Number of Teams (61), Avg. ARP (9.80)
Central: Number of Teams (32), Avg. ARP (15.76)
Southeast: Number of Teams (15), Avg. ARP (11.61)
Southwest: Number of Teams (43), Avg. ARP (12.75)

Also, if any TD wants the raw data after/before adjustments for bracket placement I would be happy to share.

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:07 pm 
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Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2014 6:56 pm
Posts: 291
Location: Delaware, OH
Damn, another impressive compilation. Thanks for taking the time to do this, Josh. I’m a believer that these quantitative efforts help legitimize Ohio’s Quiz Bowl circuit.

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Thomas Moore
Ohio Wesleyan '18

Keep honking, I'm still posting.


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:47 am 
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Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:26 pm
Posts: 51
Thank you Tom. I like doing this and I have gotten some good feedback so far.

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:50 am 
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Junior Varsity

Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:55 pm
Posts: 67
Warning: My terrible sense of humor incoming.

Hey, look at that map! Columbus, Delaware, and Mount Vernon are in one region and Portmouth, Wheelersburg, and Ironton are in a different one. That doesn't seem right...

Okay, I got that out of my system. I know that the map isn't for the same purpose and there are many factors involved in our current regional map.

Josh, this is amazing. I'm greatly enjoying it. I'm glad that someone is doing this and there is actual data we can point to for things we have thought in the past.

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Joshua Queen
Physics Teacher
Chillicothe Quiz Bowl Coach
Ohio QuizBowl Alliance Tournaments: https://docs.google.com/a/olsd.us/docum ... sp=sharing
"Yes we play quiz bowl in southern Ohio."


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:10 pm 
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Posts: 51
Thanks! I think the data could be useful once we have a whole season.

One thing I just looked at was numbers of the top 16 in each region. The southeast is lacking data right now so I only used the 8 teams that have data, but once your tournament happens I think I will be all set.

Attachment:
data.PNG
data.PNG [ 8.47 KiB | Viewed 1727 times ]

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:48 pm 
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Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2016 7:59 pm
Posts: 42
Josh,

I really appreciate all of the work that you have put into the statewide ranking data, it really does do a lot to help promote our sport. It was also interesting to see the state divided up into regions for comparing data. However, why did you organize the state into 5 regions instead of 6 regions (like what we have for OAC). I know that your data is based on NAQT results (and not OAC), however the six region OAC system is the only way that we have organized the state (because as far as I know, we have never had NAQT regional tournaments, just a state tourney). In our case at Little Miami we are in the SW region for OAC, and it would not include teams such as Beavercreek and Northmont because they are in the WC region. Hopefully this doesn't come off as nitpicking, rather just curious about the methodology used. Once again, thanks for all the work you do in putting together state wide data.

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Ron Maupin
Head Coach - Little Miami High School


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:42 pm 
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It does not come back as nitpicky at all. I just chose these based on what most maps on Google were haha. I will make one with sub regions that fit the usual OAC regions here in the next couple days.

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:31 am 
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Okay. I took a very quick guess at where most teams would go for OAC Regionals. If there any teams you think should switch regions let me know. I may have misplaced a few.
Attachment:
SC TO NC.PNG
SC TO NC.PNG [ 36.56 KiB | Viewed 1643 times ]

Attachment:
CN TO SW.PNG
CN TO SW.PNG [ 73.34 KiB | Viewed 1643 times ]


Top 16 teams in each regional summary
Attachment:
summm.PNG
summm.PNG [ 21.34 KiB | Viewed 1643 times ]

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:58 pm 
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1/20: Small update after Chillicothe today. The data from Chillicothe allowed me to get enough data for an adjustment for SCOP and tweak all adjustments a little.

Some shuffling occurred in the top-10, but nothing major.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1004929050

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:16 pm 
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Josh,

Thanks for using the 6 region model, it looks great!

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Ron Maupin
Head Coach - Little Miami High School


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:53 pm 
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Junior Varsity

Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:26 pm
Posts: 51
Small Update

HS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p0thgYk4FXer2QnJuoT8FTrmcYWHQIxjZrkkTafnLqQ/edit#gid=1248831504
-I added a tab for the OAC Regionals Top 16 (Estimated Regions, not guaranteed) and Geographical Regions Top 16
-Highest climber was Waverly
- Hoping for a big update as leagues finish up!

MS:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WDnH80VrtPUJiGwiRskHas9-W2pBNAXlN0NoebCBjoM/edit#gid=862958647

EDIT: I also created a Small School tab with ranking for public and private. I would appreciate it if anyone would point out errors or omissions for the small schools.

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:53 pm 
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Posts: 51
HS Update: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =292419698
-Northmont climbs into the top ten.
-There are now around 300 teams in the data set!

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:36 pm 
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Junior Varsity

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HS Update after Olmsted Falls:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p0thgYk4FXer2QnJuoT8FTrmcYWHQIxjZrkkTafnLqQ/edit#gid=1878447459
-I will have another update this week when the stats for the Ashtabula ESC Tournament are posted.

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:57 am 
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HS update after Solon: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p0thgYk4FXer2QnJuoT8FTrmcYWHQIxjZrkkTafnLqQ/edit#gid=220681583

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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