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 Post subject: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 7:39 pm 
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Teams from Ohio attending HSNCT:

Beavercreek
Boardman
Brush
Cloverleaf
Copley
Fisher Catholic
Miami Valley
Northmont
Olentangy Liberty
Olmsted Falls
Solon
Tippecanoe
Walnut Hills

Warren G. Harding was registered at one point, but they must have withdrawn. I think Beavercreek, Copley, Fisher, and Miami Valley can make a deep playoff run. Our goal is 6-4; I think we have a chance of making the playoffs but it'll probably depend on our opponents. Last time we attended HSNCT was 2015 and we went 3-7, so we're definitely hoping to improve. Thoughts?

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Pranav Padmanabhan
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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 8:24 pm 
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The way Hari + crew played today was scary good, they will go very far. They beat us by a larger margin than DCC A and Wayzata did last week.

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Ben Anthony
Harrison '17


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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 2:44 am 
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Beavercreek - upper boundary: 7-3; lower boundary: 6-4; Hari has progressed so well as a player over the course of his sophomore year, and he's picked up some help along the way from his teammates. I think they're the deepest team out of the Ohio contingency (although my opportunities to read for Miami Valley have been limited.) I think Beavercreek will find themselves in the 6-2 v 6-2 game. I really do think that. 5-2 is pretty easy to get to; my senior year we went 6-2 and were helped by the fact our opponent in the 5-2 v 5-2 game was a team we knew we could beat (which we did, although incidentally that team went on to eliminate DCC A the next day.) I don't know much about what effect the expansion of the field to 304 has on how the distribution of the field after, say, seven games (plus byes), shapes, but I'm inclined to think a team that averaged 24.53 ppb on an IS set will do well enough to get to the 5-2 v 5-2, win that, and go on to 6-2. The 6-2 versus 6-2 game is really tough, though.

Boardman - upper boundary: 6-4; lower boundary: 5-5; the 3-7 record last year was a shocker to me. I'm more likely to believe Boardman will make the playoffs than miss. The really weird thing about HSNCT is there are teams that can get into the playoffs when they probably don't deserve to be there, but make it because they lost enough of their early games and managed to rally through the cards in the 170's and 180's in the afternoon to where they got to like card 92 or whatever miraculously; I think Boardman this year will be a team that does deserve to be there. If I had to guess, Boardman will probably make it to a 5-3 v 5-3 game. I don't think Boardman really has any PPBs from this year that are a reliable enough measure to assess how they stack versus the field; I can't tell which games in the Mahoning events are on what set, an A-set in October probably underrates Boardman, Mellon Bowl isn't going to give us a good idea because not all 20 tossups are heard in a game, and the D2 SCT set doesn't tell us anything either.

Brush - upper boundary: 6-4; lower boundary: 4-6; they buzz early, a lot. If they make it to a 4-3 v 4-3, and if they can win, I like their odds to possibly go 6-4. Win the 4-3 v 4-3 and you become a 5-3. If your aggressive buzzing gets you the wins, and if you have two games left just to win one more game to make it in, what are the odds that your aggressive buzzing loses you _both_ games?

Cloverleaf - upper boundary: 6-4; lower boundary: 5-5; this is probably the best team Cloverleaf has had since Brian played there. I read for them at NAQT States and OAC States, and they had some good contributions across the subjects and across the players. They're all juniors, I believe? My prediction here is if they don't make playoffs this year, then they'll definitely make it next year. Go Colts!

Copley - upper boundary: 7-3; lower boundary: 6-4; if the entire Copley A lineup is playing, then I think they'll make 7-3 with ease. If they find themselves in a 5-2 v 5-2 game, I like their odds to win... but if they lose and drop to 5-3 I definitely like their odds to win one of the last two to make it in. Might even get the last two if they drop to 5-3 to go 7-3!

Fisher - upper boundary: 7-3; lower boundary: 6-4; Hunter has played lights out (or close to that) since the abysmal performance FC turned in at NAQT States. I think the problem here is that unless Hunter gets a few tossups to pour in from seats 2-4 in the games that matter most, he's going to get screwed. I have been pretty impressed with Hunter this season, and am thinking if he's firing on all cylinders then FC has a chance to clinch the program's first ever 7-3 on Saturday. (We always underperformed at HSNCT.)

I'll do Miami Valley through Walnut Hills later today or tomorrow. Sleep time!

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Thomas Moore
William V. Fisher Catholic '14
Ohio Wesleyan '18


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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 3:39 pm 
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Hunter Wotruba and I got together this afternoon, and we yakked about the 13 team Ohio contingency (plus Harrison from Indiana!) going to HSNCT.

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Thomas Moore
William V. Fisher Catholic '14
Ohio Wesleyan '18


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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 4:05 pm 
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lol RIP we aren't going.

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Ben Anthony
Harrison '17


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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 4:17 pm 
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Good stuff. Thanks to both of you for putting your comments together.

Seems like you are fairly bullish on Ohio teams and their ability to go 5-5 or 6-4. I'd hazard a guess that Beavercreek could even go 8-2, but teams like Liberty or Tipp might be looking at 3-7. I think 7 wins for Fisher, Copley and Northmont are accurate goals. Solon, Boardman and Olmsted are more 6 or 5 win teams. Cloverleaf will settle around 5 wins. Walnut and Brush - 5 wins as well?

Miami Valley for me is the real enigma. Could win 8, or could struggle and miss the playoffs. HSNCT level science and math may really challenge the Grogers. I'm going to say 6 wins, and barely make the playoffs for the Rams.

The Red Devils are SUPER young; nobody older than a Sophomore is attending. We'll get killed on literature, math and most science. But as you mentioned in the conversation, the current events, geography and history will be productive for us. I predict we start out terrible, and then win a few in the afternoon once the field winnows out. My challenge will be to keep the youngsters interested and engaged until we can start winning a couple of games.


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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 5:12 pm 
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Thanks for the breakdown, Tom and Hunter; I enjoyed listening to your summary, especially on teams we haven't played this year like Walnut Hills and Liberty! Looking forward to this weekend and good luck to Team Ohio!

(Also, side note for Tom: Not sure if he's planning on playing quiz bowl, but Ricky will be attending Ohio Wesleyan in the fall.)

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Pranav Padmanabhan
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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 6:01 pm 
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ppadmanabhan wrote:
Thanks for the breakdown, Tom and Hunter; I enjoyed listening to your summary, especially on teams we haven't played this year like Walnut Hills and Liberty! Looking forward to this weekend and good luck to Team Ohio!

(Also, side note for Tom: Not sure if he's planning on playing quiz bowl, but Ricky will be attending Ohio Wesleyan in the fall.)

Awesome! My line is 614.352.6448; he's more than welcome to hit it up if he's got any questions about the school.

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Thomas Moore
William V. Fisher Catholic '14
Ohio Wesleyan '18


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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 6:07 pm 
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jrbellas wrote:
Good stuff. Thanks to both of you for putting your comments together.

Seems like you are fairly bullish on Ohio teams and their ability to go 5-5 or 6-4. I'd hazard a guess that Beavercreek could even go 8-2, but teams like Liberty or Tipp might be looking at 3-7. I think 7 wins for Fisher, Copley and Northmont are accurate goals. Solon, Boardman and Olmsted are more 6 or 5 win teams. Cloverleaf will settle around 5 wins. Walnut and Brush - 5 wins as well?


I didn't really want to say "team X or team Y could go 3-7", because I think the 3-7 can carry a particular connotation (and I wanted to give teams the benefit of the doubt that they can do better than 3-7. :mrgreen:)

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Very quickly, I want to apologize for the fact that the comment of Kara Combs outperforming Hunter Wotruba at History Bee nationals could be interpreted as "oh, you got beat by a girl?" When Hunter and I did this, we didn't have any notes prepared or anything to reference as we did this: we only ran one tape and, as you can tell, I didn't edit anything. When we were talking about Northmont, I mentioned Kara's strong categories but forgot to mention history (I'm only human.) Hunter astutely mentioned her history prowess, and it was about that time that I remembered she got further than Hunter did at nationals this April. On the fly, what I tried to convey was that she was Ohio's best history player at the competition (for varsity; by virtue of her beating Hunter) and I didn't think anything ill of it as the words flew out nor immediately afterwards. I listened to the audio for a third or fourth time, and it was then that I reheard what I said and realized "oh goodness, this might sound like two 'bros' ribbing the other about losing to a female competitor." I have great respect for Kara as a player, and I know Hunter has the same respect for her as a competitor. Admittedly, that audio bit can reasonably interpreted to be a discredit to her – for that, I apologize (that was surely not my intention.) If there was one do-over I wish I could do with this tape, it would be to re-do that bit.

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Thomas Moore
William V. Fisher Catholic '14
Ohio Wesleyan '18


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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 9:19 am 
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Drew and I won't be arriving until after 10pm on Friday night so we will not be around for the scrimmage rounds.

I just want to wish everyone safe travels and good luck at HSNCT - I hope I get the chance to read for you / talk to you / see you in some regard at some point.

Seniors, enjoy your last HSNCT - I hope they've been memorable.

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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 10:36 am 
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I've been detached from the community for a fairly long time now, but I'll be at HSNCT again this year (it's only a three hour drive for me, traffic permitting!), and I'm definitely looking forward to meeting up with as many of you as possible!

And of course, good luck to the Ohio contingent - while I don't think there's a title contender this year it looks like from stats alone that there are teams capable of making a playoff run, so it'll be fun to see how far everyone can go!

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Jasper Lee
University of Tennessee
Ohio State University '14
Solon High School '10

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 Post subject: Re: HSNCT 2017 Preview
PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 3:32 am 
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It looks like I chose the wrong national tournament to go to (MSNCT) when I got the email in February that NAQT had a need for more volunteers. This looks like it should be an awesome year for the Dayton area. Good luck to everyone from Ohio, especially Beavercreek.

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Jonathan Graham
Beavercreek(1999-2003), Ohio State (2003-07), Wright State(2012-fall14)
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