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 Post subject: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:11 am 
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Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:26 pm
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I was bored and wanted to find a way to rank teams statistically. This is obviously limited to the TU/B format. The data I use makes this “useful” for comparison of Ohio teams only. I was inspired by Tyler Benedicts work last year and used some similar data. I ranked teams based a formula using the adjusted PPB (aPPB) and adjusted power percentage (aP%). I adjusted the PPB and P% by using the average of all IS sets.

The formula I used to calculated the ARP (average ranked points ) number I ranked the teams on was:

(aPPB*aP%) + aPPB = ARP

The reason I chose to add aPPB was to prevent teams from having a zero ARP if their power percentage was 0.

Feel feel to critique and add anything you think would make it better! I am open to lots of suggestions.

I ranked middle school teams and high school teams. I did not use the stats for Solon A and Beavercreek A from their hosted tournaments because I know their real A teams did not play. Let me know if I missed stats anywhere!

Tournaments used:
-High School: Solon Fall, Scottie (KY), Brookfield Gathering, Miami Valley Fall, Beavercreek. Mellon Bowl (PA), Waynesdale, Columbiana
-Middle School: Northmont, Miami Valley Fall

Middle School
Attachment:
ms rank nov 1.PNG
ms rank nov 1.PNG [ 16.37 KiB | Viewed 684 times ]


High School
Attachment:
rankings nov 1.PNG
rankings nov 1.PNG [ 98.45 KiB | Viewed 684 times ]

_________________
Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


Last edited by eckj on Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:06 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:03 pm
Posts: 103
This looks really cool, Josh (and much more nicely conceived than my brute-force attempts last year)...good to have someone with some quantitative acumen crunching numbers for a change!

In particular, the treatment of power percentage seems better than my ham-fisted way of accounting for it last year, which was to do one set of rankings entirely based on aPPB, and another entirely based on aP%, then add the relative positions of both together (so a team who was 1st on the aP% list and 3rd in aPPB would have a combined ranking of 1+3=4, with 2 then being the best possible number). I think your way here, Josh, is a nice solution to get sound rankings without all that double-listing, position-adding and other nonsense. Kudos to you for calculating all those adjustments!

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Tyler Benedict
Coach, Miami Valley School MS Quiz
Assistant, Miami Valley School HS Quiz
Miami Valley School '09


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:46 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:45 pm
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Thanks for doing this! I always love looking at different ways of ranking teams. Looking forward to seeing how more Ohio teams do as the season progresses!

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Pranav Padmanabhan
Boardman 2018


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:07 am 
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Thank you both. I will continue to do it just for just for fun. I already made a slight adjustment to the stats to remove outliers when calculating the adjustment for the sets.

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:10 pm 
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Updated High School after Tippecanoe and Gahanna-Lincoln this weekend.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p0thgYk4FXer2QnJuoT8FTrmcYWHQIxjZrkkTafnLqQ/edit#gid=260751617

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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 Post subject: Re: Statistical Rankings
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:24 pm 
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Here is an updated: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =227305641

I made a few changes:
1. I pulled data for all of the sets from tournaments outside of Ohio to calculate set adjustments. I was getting some weird adjustments because I did not have enough data points.

2. I decided to calculate APR using the teams BEST adjusted PPB and P% instead of using their CUMULATIVE adjusted PPB and P%. This seems more fair because as teams improve their ranking would be held down by their stats from earlier in the season.

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Joshua Eck
Coach, Copley High School
OAC Executive Committee NE Region
Website: https://sites.google.com/copley-fairlaw ... zbowl/home


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